Marin, FR, Jones, JW, Singles, A., Royce, F., Assad, E.D., Pellegrino, G.Q., Justino, F., 2012. Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil. Climatic Change 117, 227-239. Cooper, M., Mendes, L.M.S., Silva, W.L.C., Sparovek, G., 2005. A national soil profile database for Brazil available to international scientists. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 69, 649-652. Most typical maize and soybean crop systems were: 2-y soybean-maize (with one crop per year) and 1-y soybean-maize (‘safrinha'). In the latter, soybean is planted with the onset of rains in October and matures in January. Maize is planted after soybean harvest. The rainy season ends before maize maturity, leading to terminal drought in most years. For maize, we simulated both safra and safrinha when both accounted for >30% of maize area within each buffer; if not, only the most dominant maize system was simulated in each buffer. Franchini, J.C., Antonio, A., Junior, B., Debiasi, H., Nepomuceno, A.L., 2017. Root growth of soybean cultivars under different water availability conditions Crescimento radicular de cultivares de soja em campo em diferentes disponibilidades hídricas. Ciências Agrárias, Londrina, 38, 715–724.

Aramburu Merlos, F., Monzon, J.P., Mercau, J.L., Taboada, M., Andrade, F., Hall, A.J., Jobbagy, E., Cassman, K.G., Grassini, P. 2015. Potential for crop production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gaps. Field Crops Research 184, 145-154. Tomasella, J, Hodnett, 2004. Pedotransfer functions for tropical soils. In: Developments in Soil Science, pp. 415-429. Figure 1. Comparison of simulated and observed phenology (left) and grain yields (right) for rice (top), soybean (middle), and maize (bottom).The solid red line represents y = x and the dashed red lines represents ± 20% deviation from the y -x line.RMSE = mean square root of error.The phenological stages of rice, soybean and maize were based on the scales ofCounce et al.(2000), Fehr and Caviness (1977), and Ritchie et al. (1993), respectively . Duarte, Y.C.N., Sentelhas, P.C., 2019. NASA / POWER and DailyGridded weather datasets — how good they are for estimating maize yields in Brazil ? Int. J. Biometeorol. doi: 10.1007/s00484-019-01810-1Pivetta, L.A., G. Castoldi, G. Santos, and C.A. Rosolem. 2011. Soybean root growth and activity as affected by the production system. Pesquisa Agropecu. Bras. 46, 1547–1554. Table 1. Average (2015-2019) total production, harvested area, and average yield of soybean, maize, sugarcane and rice in Brazil. Source: CONAB. Heinemann, A. B., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Rebolledo, M. C., Neto, G. M. F. C., & Castro, A. P., 2019. Upland rice breeding led to increased drought sensitivity in Brazil. Field Crops Research 231, 57-67. Annual crop production area in Brazil occupies 69 million ha. Major crops are soybean, maize, sugarcane, and rice which account for 90% of total crop area, and (except for rice) the country is one of the largest producers and exporters of these crops. Most sugarcane, soybean, and maize is produced in rainfed conditions (>90%); rice is produced in irrigated (80%) and rainfed (20%) conditions in the southern and north-central regions, respectively.

Management practices for each RWS buffer zone were retrieved from local EMBRAPA agronomists and other experts. Requested information include: dominant crop rotations and proportion of each of them to the total harvested area, sowing window, dominant cultivar name and maturity, and optimal plant population density (CONAB, 2019). The provided data were subsequently corroborated by other local and national experts. Marin, F. R. Jones, J. W. Royce, F. 2011. Parameterization and Evaluation of Predictions of DSSAT/CANEGRO for Brazilian Sugarcane. Agron. J. 103, 297-303. Bouman, B.A.M.; Kropff, M.J.; Tuong, T.P.; Wopereis, M.C.S.; Ten Berge, H.F.M.; Laar van, H.H, 2004. Van. Oryza 2000: modeling lowland rice. Manila, Philippines: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). 245 pp.Tomasella, J, Hodnett, MG, Rossato, L, 2000. Pedotransfer functions for the estimation of soil water retention in Brazilian soils. Soil Sci Soc Am J 69, 649-652. There are two dominant rice systems: irrigated lowland rice (southern brazil) and rainfed upland rice (north-central and western Brazil). Rice is grown as a single crop per year; in southern Brazil rice is sown from late September to early December and with the onset of rainfall (typically between early November and early December) in north-central Brazil rice is planted. In all cases, rice is direct seeded.

Bender, F.D., Sentelhas, P.C., 2018. Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil. Advances in Meteorology, 2018, 1-15.For each crop-RWS combination, each crop sequence x soil type combination was simulated, and then weighted by their relative proportion to retrieve an average Yw at the level of the RWS buffer zone (or Yp in the case of irrigated rice). Simulations assumed no limitations to crop growth by nutrients and no incidence of biotic stresses such as weeds, insect pests, and pathogens. Allen, R.G., Luis, S.P., RAES, D., Smith, M., 1998. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No.56. Crop Evapotranspiration, Rome, Italy Long-term(20 years) daily weather data were retrieved from Brazilian Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and include maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation for the period between years 1999 and 2018. Relative humidity, dew temperature, and ETo were estimated following Allen et al., (1998). Quality control and filling/correction of the weather data were performed based on the propagation technique developed by van Wart et al. (2014). In all cases, solar radiation was retrieved from NASA-POWER, which has shown good correlation with measured solar radiation (Bender and Sentelhas, 2018; Monteiro et al., 2018; Duarte et al., 2019). Measured weather data were not available in 20% of the buffers); hence, we used weather data (including all variables) from NASA-POWER.